Alternative Premier League table after 30 games, based on expected goals
This season was always going to be dramatic and now in almost every area of the Premier League table there is a huge battle going on.One of the biggest is for a spot in the top four with Tottenham losing to Southampton, Arsenal beating Manchester United, and Chelsea drawing with Wolves.Arsenal halted Manchester United’s unbeaten Premier League run under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer9
Arsenal halted Manchester United’s unbeaten Premier League run under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer
A vital win for Cardiff City sees their chances of surviving their first season back in the top-flight improve, while even Everton and Bournemouth, who are 11th and 12th respectively, might now be casting a glance over their shoulders as the climax to the campaign becomes tense.Crystal Palace will be frustrated too, losing 2-1 to Brighton & Hove Albion despite having the best of the chances and will be left feeling they deserved a win.Sadly in football deserving a win doesn’t always get you the three points, which is a damn shame.But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by ‘Expected Goals’? Here at talkSPORT.com were always keeping an eye onUnderstat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats.Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
20. Huddersfield – Real position = 20Real points = 14 | Expected points = 24.2719. Fulham – Real position = 19Real points = 17 | Expected points = 27.1218. Newcastle United – Real position = 14Real points = 34 | Expected points = 29.74Matt Ritchie missed a penalty but Newcastle won anyway in a five-goal thriller with Everton9
Matt Ritchie missed a penalty but Newcastle won anyway in a five-goal thriller with Everton
17. Brighton & Hove Albion – Real position = 15Real points = 33 | Expected points = 29.9316. Cardiff City – Real position = 18Real points = 28 | Expected points = 30.5515. Burnley – Real position = 16Real points = 30 | Expected points = 32.4214. Southampton – Real position = 17Real points = 30 | Expected points = 33.62Southampton stunned Spurs at St Mary’s9
Southampton stunned Spurs at St Mary’s
13. West Ham – Real position = 9Real points = 39 | Expected points = 33.6612. Everton – Real position = 10Real points = 37 | Expected points = 37.1611. Bournemouth – Real position = 12Real points = 37 | Expected points = 38.95

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  • Reading vs Leeds (Tuesday) –talkSPORT 2
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  • Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa (Wednesday) –talkSPORT 2
  • Dynamo Kyiv vs Chelsea (Thursday) –talkSPORT 2
  • Watford vs Crystal Palace (Saturday) –talkSPORT
  • Leeds vs Sheffield United (Saturday) –talkSPORT 2
  • West Ham vs Huddersfield (Saturday) –talkSPORT 2
  • Swansea vs Manchester City (Saturday) –talkSPORT
  • Wolves vs Manchester United (Saturday) –talkSPORT
  • Millwall vs Brighton (Sunday) –talkSPORT 2
  • Fulham vs Liverpool (Sunday) –talkSPORT
10. Watford – Real position = 8Real points = 43 | Expected points = 40.049. Crystal Palace – Real position = 13 Real points = 33 | Expected points = 41.348. Leicester – Real position = 11Real points = 38 | Expected points = 44.277. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 7Real points = 44 | Expected points = 47.68Raul Jimenez put Wolves in front against Chelsea9
Raul Jimenez put Wolves in front against Chelsea
6. Arsenal – Real position = 5Real points = 60 | Expected points = 48.335. Tottenham – Real position = 3Real points = 61 | Expected points = 49.50Tottenham’s players were dejected after throwing away their lead against Southampton9
Tottenham’s players were dejected after throwing away their lead against Southampton
4. Manchester United – Real position = 4 Real points = 58 | Expected points = 49.76Manchester United defender Chris Smalling is consoled by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer9
Manchester United defender Chris Smalling is consoled by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer
3. Chelsea – Real position = 6Real points = 57 | Expected points = 53.71Eden Hazard prevented a defeat for the Blues against Wolves9
Eden Hazard prevented a defeat for the Blues against Wolves
2. Liverpool – Real position = 2Real points = 73 | Expected points = 66.61Sadio Mane celebrates putting his side 2-1 up with a clinical finish9
Sadio Mane celebrates putting his side 2-1 up with a clinical finish
1. Manchester City – Real position = 1Real points = 74 | Expected points = 71.82Raheem Sterling was the star of the show at the Etihad Stadium as Man City beat Watford9
Raheem Sterling was the star of the show at the Etihad Stadium as Man City beat Watford


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